From Robin Westenra of seemorerocks @ substack
A DIRE WARNING FOR ALL NEW ZEALANDERS
I am producing this for friends, relatives and anyone who will listen in New Zealand and Australia.
It is so urgent that I urge you to share this information, not just online but to talk to all your friends and family to warn them that they need to be prepared.
Not a word of this (not even a hint), is in the New Zealand media but is prominent in the Australian media.
Please don’t be taken by surprise.
TODAY THE OIL CHOKEPOINT, THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ CLOSED
IRAN’S NAVY WILL SET SHIPS ON FIRE IF THEY TRY TO PASS THROUGH
This has come as a result of Trump and Netanyahu’s attack on Iran in the weekend in which the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed.
This has set the entire Middle East on fire and Iran is doing what it always said it would do if it was attack – that is to destroy Israel and drive America out of the Middle East so we cannot be surprised by the ferocity of the vengeance.
However, whatever your view of the Iranian regime and the war does not matter in the slightest.
You are going to reap the consequences.
This is what is being reported in the international press:
Australia is one step ahead of New Zealand and has been putting out warnings, including stockpiling 90 days of fuel.
Pay particular attention to this:
The lack of fuel supplies has sparked warnings that Australia may quickly find it is unable to stock supermarket and pharmacy shelves or operate freight between states in the event of a severe global supply chain disruption.
Australia has less than a month of petrol and diesel onshore as concerns mount about fuel security due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East.
According to the Department of Climate Change and Energy, the country holds just 26 days of automotive gasoline and 25 days of diesel.
The department reported just 50 days of net import cover for oil consumption, significantly below the 90 day obligation under the International Energy Agency requirement.
The signficant shortfall in oil stockholdings has raised concerns as the US-Iran conflict escalates, disrupting shipping and oil markets.
But this from the the Australian Financial review is key.
Australia has less than one month’s worth oil in storage, and is the ONLY country FAILING to meet its international treaty obligations to have enough oil in case of a global emergency.
Australia has less than one month’s worth of jet fuel, petrol and diesel in storage, and is the only country failing to meet its international treaty obligations to have enough oil in case of a global emergency.
This is key
The lack of fuel supplies has sparked warnings that Australia may quickly find it is unable to stock supermarket and pharmacy shelves or operate freight between states in the event of a severe global supply chain disruption.
***
The position in Australia with regard to days of net import coverage for oil is particularly dire, but New Zealand comes in second.
Remember we are isolated and at the very end of supply chain.
I have been aware of this weakness since 2010 but have written extensively about the situation the total lack of resilience since the spectre of war first came to my attention.
In recent years, the Adern government, in particular, has massively reduced what little resilience the country had by:
- closing down the privatised Marsden Point oil refinery and filling the pipes with concrete so there was no way back
- Cancelling oil and gas exploration
Here is my article:
New Zealand is in a cargo cult – for how much longer?
·
18 October 2024
I would like to fill in my article with some apposite comments from Ted, a Peak Oil researcher and activist from Nelson, New Zealand.
All the New Zealand media talks about so far is a coming price hike:
The widening conflict in Iran is shaking financial and energy markets worldwide as tankers in a key shipping corridor are targeted and oil prices begin to soar, threatening to escalate the affordability crunch facing US voters.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped roughly 530 points, or about 1% shortly after the open. The S&P 500 fell roughly 1.1%, and the Nasdaq composite index shed 1.4%. By midmorning, the markets had recovered some of the lost ground.
Gold prices popped about 2.25%. US Treasury yields rose in a telltale sign of mounting uncertainty, and the US dollar similarly strengthened.
Meanwhile, oil surged nearly 8%. Diesel prices soared even higher than oil, up 17%. Analysts said that will probably result in diesel price hikes at the pump this week of more than 20 cents per gallon (3.7 litres).
The size of the economic fallout hinges on how long fighting persists and whether there is any political or military stability in Iran in its aftermath, analysts say.
If what I think is going to happen eventuates the cost of petrol is the last thing that we need to worry about.
The Australian Business review refers to exactly what I have been aware of for some time – the vulnerability of just-in-time supply lines to supermarkets and the like.
I repeat:
The lack of fuel supplies has sparked warnings that Australia may quickly find it is unable to stock supermarket and pharmacy shelves or operate freight between states in the event of a severe global supply chain disruption
Already these are some. very early changes.
I think that all the signs are that this war on Iran and its response is likely to destroy the world economy.
We are in very early days.
Iran is ready for a very long war and does not intend to back down
What to do
The more far-sighted among us have been preparing for this for years.
However, I would see it as a priority to stock up on non-perishable foodstuffs.
I would certainly be stockpiling some supplies of petrol.
This is for actual shortages and not for the price increases that will come in first to bite.
It probably does not matter in the long run how much you store – it will never be enough.
For those who want more analysis, here are the results of a query to ChatGPT AI
🇳🇿 Fuel supply and storage in New Zealand
- No domestic oil refinery anymore
- New Zealand’s only oil refinery at Marsden Point was closed in 2022, and the site now functions as a fuel import terminal, meaning we now import 100 % of our refined petrol, diesel and jet fuel.
https://www.regulation.govt.nz/assets/RIS-Documents/ria-mbie-mfsod-apr23.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
- Fuel stock levels are modest
- After the refinery’s closure, modelling by the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) estimated stocks of petrol would cover about 28 days of demand, jet fuel ~24 days, and diesel ~21 days at any given time based on average consumption.
- This is broadly similar to Australia’s situation of having around one month’s petrol supply in storage — historically tied to just-in-time commercial holding by fuel companies rather than a large government strategic reserve.
- Government stockholding rules changing
- New Zealand has introduced a Minimum Fuel Stockholding Obligation that will require importers to hold minimum reserves roughly equivalent to those 28/24/21-day levels from early 2025 — although these levels may be just what companies already hold commercially rather than a true strategic buffer.
- There’s also a plan to increase government (public) diesel reserves and regulatory action to ensure jet fuel storage near key airports.
- Pre-refinery closure, reserves were larger
- Before Marsden Point shut down, the refinery and related infrastructure provided larger physical stocks onshore — including crude stocks and refined product — which added to national resilience. With those no longer part of the system, overall measured fuel stocks are lower.
- Stockpiles vs. strategic reserves
- Currently, New Zealand does not maintain a large government strategic petroleum reserve like some larger economies (e.g., the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve). Instead, stocks are largely held commercially by fuel companies and importers, supplemented by some future minimum holding requirements.
https://tewaihanga.govt.nz/media/yxcbdafs/sector-state-of-play-energy.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
📊 So is New Zealand “safe” or headed for catastrophe?
- Vulnerability to import disruption:
Yes — reliance on imported refined fuel means that in the case of a major global shipping disruption (war, blockade, pandemic blockade of sea lanes, etc.) New Zealand could face shortages faster than larger producers with domestic refining and strategic reserves. Commercial stock levels are meant to cover several weeks, not months. - No refinery ≠ immediate collapse:
Having no refinery isn’t alone a catastrophe today — fuel import logistics worldwide function on similar stock cycles. But it does reduce domestic robustness in the event of extended global supply stress, especially given NZ’s geographical isolation. - Government awareness exists:
The fact the Fuel Security Plan is being discussed, that minimum stockholdings are being legislated, and that jet fuel storage rules were introduced indicates the government is aware of risks — even if public conversation hasn’t been loud.
🧠 Political and public context
Public reaction has often been muted — partly because fuel supply disruptions are not immediately visible until they occur, and partly because many see fuel markets as a commercial, not a strategic public, responsibility. However:
- News coverage is rising around energy security and fuel supply risk, including commentary from politicians like Shane Jones on strengthening fuel resilience.
- Civil defence and industry reports recognise that fuel storage is now entirely based on imported refined stocks rather than local refining capacity.
https://www.regulation.govt.nz/assets/RIS-Documents/ria-mbie-mfsod-apr23.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com
🧩 Summary
First: the hard constraint (common to all scenarios)
New Zealand now has:
- No refining capacity (Marsden Point is an import terminal only)
- 100% reliance on imported refined fuel
- ~21–28 days of commercial stocks in steady state
- No true state-controlled strategic reserve
- Fuel stocks are already allocated (retail, aviation, freight, agriculture)
So the question is not “do we have fuel?”
It is “how long can flows be sustained?”
Fuel security is about continuity, not volume.
Scenario A: Shipping delays (non-hostile, non-panic)
Examples:
- Port congestion
- Weather delays
- Temporary shipping disruption
- Insurance delays
- Cyberattack on logistics systems
What happens
- Ships are late, not cancelled
- Importers stretch inventories
- Priority allocation begins quietly
Timeline
- Weeks 0–2:
Public sees nothing. Fuel companies adjust internally. - Weeks 2–4:
Regional shortages emerge. Diesel tightens first. - Weeks 4–6:
Aviation and long-haul freight constrained.
How long the economy functions
- 6–8 weeks at reduced efficiency
- GDP impact noticeable but manageable
- Inflation spike, not social breakdown
Key insight
This is what the system is designed to absorb — barely.
Scenario B: Fuel price shock (supply exists, affordability collapses)
Examples:
- Middle East escalation
- Sanctions
- Global refinery outages
- Financial market stress
Fuel arrives — but at extreme cost.
What happens
- Fuel still flows
- Demand destruction replaces rationing
- Poorer households and small businesses are hit first
Timeline
- Immediate: prices spike
- Weeks 1–3: discretionary travel collapses
- Weeks 3–8: freight, agriculture, construction slow
How long the economy functions
- Indefinitely, but in a contracted, uglier form
- Living standards fall
- Political legitimacy erodes
Key insight
Price shocks don’t stop society —
they re-stratify it very fast.
This is socially destabilising but not logistically fatal.
Scenario C: Geopolitically induced shortage (ships stop sailing)
This is the one you are intuitively pointing to.
Examples:
- Regional war affecting shipping lanes
- Tanker insurance withdrawal
- State-level blockades or coercion
- Coordinated sanctions or counter-sanctions
What happens
- Fuel physically cannot be delivered
- Insurance voids contracts
- Commercial stocks become the only supply
Timeline (this is critical)
Days 0–7
- Government says little
- Emergency planning activates
- Fuel companies stop discretionary sales quietly
Days 7–14
- Diesel rationing begins
- Trucking, agriculture, forestry impacted
- Regional stations run dry
Days 14–21
- Aviation sharply reduced
- Supermarket logistics falter
- Emergency services prioritised
Days 21–35
- Economy enters controlled shutdown
- Fuel allocation replaces market pricing
- Public panic becomes a variable
How long the economy functions
- 3–5 weeks at something resembling normality
- 6–8 weeks at emergency-only operation
- After that: systemic failure risk rises sharply
Key insight
NZ does not collapse because it runs out of fuel.
It collapses because distribution fails first.
Scenario D: Shortage + public panic (the multiplier)
This is the real killer.
Fuel systems assume rational consumption.
If even 10–15% of households panic-fill tanks:
- Retail fuel is gone in days
- Commercial stocks are pulled forward
- Rationing becomes chaotic instead of planned
Timeline
- 48–72 hours: visible station failures
- 1 week: urban paralysis
- 2–3 weeks: emergency powers invoked
How long the economy functions
- Weeks, not months
- Social trust becomes the limiting factor
Key insight
Panic is more destructive than war.
This is why governments stay quiet —
but silence also raises panic risk when reality intrudes.
The uncomfortable truth (said plainly)
New Zealand has traded resilience for efficiency.
That works only while:
- global trade flows are smooth
- insurance markets function
- people remain calm
Your sense that “nobody wants to hear this” is accurate — because this kind of vulnerability contradicts the national self-image.
One grounding note (important)
Seeing this clearly does not mean catastrophe is inevitable.
It means:
- NZ is fragile, not doomed
- Leadership matters enormously in shocks
- Social cohesion becomes more important than fuel volume
https://chatgpt.com/c/69a5f4fa-39e0-8321-bcdc-19d39baf64f7
Image by Engin Akyurt from Pixabay
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