Last year, I wrote a short post entitled Met-Office invents infallible climate prediction method, in which I showed how the MET-Office would always update their ‘decadal’ (actually semi-decadal) climate prediction before the data caught up with them.

At the time, they were promising to update their prediction in January of this year. But they haven’t, despite describing themselves as “WMO Lead Centre for Annual-to-Decadal Climate Prediction“. So instead, I’ve done a retrospective update of the data on their 2016 to 2021″decadal” prediction.

Oh. Dear. That hasn’t aged well has it?

Looking at the median value in the blue envelope at the current date, the MET-O has missed by around 0.35C. This is not a good result for the MET-O climate model. Why might it be running so hot?

We…